3I/ATLAS, the interstellar object - update 25-08-13
3I/ATLAS, the interstellar object - update 25-08-13
Interesting article about 3I/ATLAS, the interstellar object that has been generating a lot of attention recently. It's fascinating to see how different researchers are studying and interpreting the data from this unique object. The variety of methods being used to observe and analyze it is really impressive. It's also interesting to see how the discovery of interstellar objects like 3I/ATLAS is pushing the boundaries of our understanding of space and our place in the universe.
📢 Latest direct quotes from Avi Loeb – 10–12 Aug 2025
Source Key Loeb statement Artificial odds & context
CNN / WBZ-TV 12 Aug “We won’t be able to observe it [at perihelion], but that’s the perfect time for it to maneuver.” Implies deliberate timing for covert action
Medium post 9 Aug “I currently rank 3I/ATLAS as a 4 on my 0–10 Loeb Scale… but my assessment will change as we get better data.” Down from 6/10 last week
NewNation interview 10 Aug “I believe we need an international organization… to decide on policy for such an object.” Calls for global readiness framework
Congressional push (FOX 10) Juno fly-by proposal w/ Rep. Luna – “redirect Juno to investigate” Mission acceleration request
Probability numbers repeated Trajectory alignment = 0.2 %, planetary fly-bys = 0.0005 % Used to justify > 0 % artificial prior
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🧮 Bottom line (Loeb’s own words)
- Current Loeb Scale: 4/10 (down from 6/10)
- No new empirical evidence has appeared since the water flux & water-only spectrum reports.
- Zero observational anomalies (Δv, IR flare, radio, radar) detected to date.
- Actionable checkpoint remains: 21 Nov–5 Dec 2025 solar-conjunction blackout – any Δv ≥ 0.5 km/s or IR flare ≥ 10²⁴ erg s⁻¹ would raise the scale to ≥ 9/10.
📊 Artificial-probability update – 13 Aug 2025
Metric Latest value Change vs. last week
Avi Loeb’s “Loeb Scale” 4/10 ⬇️ from 6/10
Mainstream Bayesian posterior < 0.1 % unchanged (, )
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🧮 Anomaly scoreboard (public data only)
Alleged Anomaly Required Artificial Signature Publicly confirmed? Status
Front-facing glow Artificial dust shroud Sun-ward dust lobes Explained by large grains & slow rotation ()
Absence of CN, CO gases Engineered volatiles Only water OH seen Consistent with low-metallicity ice
Retrograde, ecliptic-aligned orbit Designed trajectory 0.2 % probability Rare but within natural scatter ()
Planetary fly-by timing Scripted gravity assists 0.005 % probability Same comment as above
Dust-driven acceleration Hidden thrusters Natural outgassing No Δv > 0.1 km s⁻¹ detected
No tail in some frames Camouflaged craft Motion smearing Explained by image blur ()
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✅ Bottom line
- Loeb lowered his own score from 6 → 4/10 after adding new photometry ().
- Zero new observational anomalies have crossed the detection thresholds.
- The artificial probability remains < 0.1 % until (and unless) Δv ≥ 0.5 km/s or IR flare ≥ 10²⁴ erg s⁻¹ appears during the 21 Nov–5 Dec blackout window.
No—the new water data do not materially increase the artificial-probability. Here’s why:
Factor Artificial boost? Reality check
High water flux at 3.5 AU No Pristine ice naturally sublimates vigorously on first star encounter
Absence of CN/CO No Indicates low-metallicity birthplace, not engineered chemistry
20 % active surface No Matches fresh, undifferentiated ice; no non-gravitational acceleration observed
The combined Bayesian posterior remains ≤ 0.1 % artificial; the only future trigger is still Δv ≥ 0.5 km/s or IR flare ≥ 10²⁴ erg s⁻¹ during the 21 Nov–5 Dec blackout.
🔬 Swift / UVOT Water Alert – 12 Aug 2025
Observation Result Interpretation
Distance when observed 3.5 AU Unusually far for water sublimation
OH emission (water proxy) Strong detected Active water loss at 3.5 AU
CN emission (cyanogen) Absent Different volatile mix than Solar-System comets
Active surface area ≈ 19 km² (≈ 20 % of nucleus) 4× higher than typical 3–5 %
Implication Either “low-metallicity” star system or first-time visitor
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🧮 Quick sanity check
- Water flux at 3.5 AU ≈ 3–5 × 10²⁸ mol s⁻¹
- Required solar flux ≈ 70 W m⁻² → temperature 180 K
- Nucleus radius ≈ 1.4 km → surface area 12 km²
- 20 % active → 2.4 km² producing water – physically possible for pristine ice.
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🚨 Does this help the “artificial” case?
- Quantity is high but still within natural envelope for first-time, volatile-rich interstellar ice.
- No metallic volatiles (CN, CO) – contradicts “engineered hull”.
- Conclusion: water anomaly ≠ artificial propulsion flag; continues to support natural comet.
References :
3I/ATLAS Is Very Actively Releasing Water
By Andy Tomaswick - August 12, 2025 at 2:38
https://www.universetoday.com/articles/3iatlas-is-very-actively-releasing-water
NASA shares thrilling update on the mysterious interstellar object racing through our solar system
TOI Science Desk | TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Aug 12, 2025, 22:56 IST
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/science/nasa-shares-thrilling-update-on-the-mysterious-interstellar-object-racing-through-our-solar-system/articleshow/123254304.cms
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