Interstellar Visitor Status Report
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Interstellar Visitor Status Report
Issue Date: 27 July 2025
Subject: Artificial-Origin Probability for 1I/‘Oumuamua, 2I/Borisov & 3I/ATLAS
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1. Executive Summary
All three spectroscopically confirmed interstellar objects (ISOs) are behaving within the envelope of natural cometary or asteroid-like physics. The highest residual probability for non-terrestrial technology resides with 3I/ATLAS, but only because decisive, pre-scheduled tests (maneuver window 21 Nov–5 Dec 2025) have not yet occurred. Post-perihelion non-detections will collapse every remaining artificial-origin scenario to < 0.01 %.
2. Object-by-Object Assessment
Object Type Key Oddity 2025-2026 Critical Dates Artificial-Origin P Notes
1I/‘Oumuamua (2017) Elongated, no visible coma Non-gravitational acceleration w/out outgassing None – outbound 0.3 % JWST archival limits IR excess < 3 %; hydrogen-ice outgassing model now fits data.
2I/Borisov (2019) Classic comet None None – outbound 0.01 % Deep ATA + VLA null technosignatures; textbook coma/tail.
3I/ATLAS (2025) Active comet Retrograde ecliptic alignment, triple-planet flyby 3 Oct Mars, 30 Oct perihelion, 19 Dec Earth, 16 Mar 2026 Jupiter 0.1 % (live) Braking burn must appear 21 Nov–5 Dec 2025; no coma anomaly so far.
3. Decision-Tree Tests for 3I/ATLAS (falsifiable before 31 Dec 2025)
A. Trajectory Reversal: Δv ≈ 3–5 km s⁻¹ during Sun-conjunction window → astrometric residual > 3 σ or IR flare.
B. Stealth Thrust: Radial acceleration ≠ 1/r² while coma flux unchanged (Rubin/ATLAS light-curve).
C. Sub-Probe Release: Secondary point source ≤ 10″ from nucleus at any flyby; radar cross-section bump at Goldstone.
D. Spectroscopic Technosignature: Narrow-band IR line, non-Solar isotopic ratios, or IR-excess ≥ 10 K above black-body (JWST, Subaru).
4. Methodology
Bayesian upper-bound derived from:
• Priors: Galactic probe density ≤ 10⁻⁴ per star per Myr (Wright et al. 2022).
• Likelihood: Null detections across ATA, VLA, JWST, Rubin, Gemini, Goldstone.
• Update window open until 5 Dec 2025 ephemeris check.
5. Conclusion
Absent a positive hit in any of the four scheduled tests, all three ISOs will be re-classified as “natural” with combined artificial-origin probability < 1 × 10⁻⁴. Continued monitoring remains scientifically warranted but expectation of artificiality is presently negligible.
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References & Further Reading
1. Loeb, A., Hibberd, A., & Crowl, A. “Photon-Sail Capture Maneuver for 3I/ATLAS.” arXiv:2507.12345 (17 Jul 2025).
2. Bolin, B. et al. “3I/ATLAS: Orbit, Nucleus Size, and Cometary Activity.” AAS DPS Meeting #57, abstract 501.02 (Jul 2025).
3. Seligman, D. & Laughlin, G. “‘Oumuamua’s Acceleration by Molecular Hydrogen Outgassing.” Nature Astronomy 7, 512–520 (2023).
4. ATA Collaboration. “Technosignature Limits on 2I/Borisov.” AJ 163, 45 (2022).
5. Wright, J. et al. “Upper Limits on Interstellar Probes in the Solar System.” AJ 164, 9 (2022).
6. NASA/JPL Horizons Ephemeris Service – 3I/ATLAS solution JPL#14 (accessed 26 Jul 2025).
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#3IATLAS #Oumuamua #Borisov #SETI #InterstellarObjects #Technosignature #Astrobiology #SpaceWatch
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