3i Atlas , What happens next ?
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FUTURISM
Read "Astronomer Suspects Mysterious Object Is Up to No Good While It’s Hidden Behind the Sun: “If You Want to Take a Vacation, Take It Before Then”" on https://futurism.com/space/avi-loeb-3i-atlas-object-hidden-behind-sun
SmartNews: https://lnkd.in/ghNQX2cB
Same narrative, new packaging. Loeb is now folding in the Oberth-effect version of his braking-thrust idea: instead of the mothership slowing itself, it keeps cruising on the hyperbola and only the probes it drops get a free ∆v kick from the Sun-deep burn. That’s physically cleaner (the carrier doesn’t need to spit a Mt of exhaust), but it adds a second observable we can put numbers on.
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1. When and where would the probes appear?
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Perihelion: 29 Oct 2025 08:12 TT, r = 0.156 au.
For a Hohmann-like transfer to Earth with Oberth assist, the ∆v needed from perihelion is only ≈ 0.6 km s⁻¹ (because Vp already 48.6 km s⁻¹).
With a chemical Isp 300 s (vₑₓ = 2.9 km s⁻¹) the mass ratio per probe is
m₀/m₁ = exp(∆v/vₑₓ) ≈ 1.23
⇒ fuel mass = 23 % of wet mass — perfectly normal for a small kick stage.
Injected 29 Oct, a probe aimed at Earth will arrive 56 days later, i.e. 23–24 Dec 2025 (the date keeps Christmas in the headlines…).
Geocentric distance at arrival: 0.55 au — the same geometry we already have scheduled for the mothership recovery.
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2. How bright would a probe be?
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Assume a 10 m, 0.1 albedo cube.
At 0.55 au its visual magnitude is
V = 5 log₁₀(rΔ) – 2.5 log₁₀(pD²) + 1
≈ 5 log₁₀(0.55×0.55) – 2.5 log₁₀(0.1×10²) + 1
≈ +15.3
That is three magnitudes above the Catalina Sky Survey limit (V≈18–19) and one magnitude above Pan-STARRS (V≈16).
Amateurs with 0.3-m scopes reach V≈16.5, so a 10-m probe would be photograph able provided somebody knows where to point.
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3. Ephemeris offset from the parent
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Because the probes leave with +0.6 km s⁻¹ along-track, their angular separation from 3I-ATLAS grows linearly:
θ(t) = (0.6 km s⁻¹ / Δ) (t – t_peri)
≈ 0″.8 per day.
By 19 Dec the swarm would be 15 arc-seconds ahead of the comet—resolved even in 1″ seeing.
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4. What we actually have to do
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- Schedule rapid-cadence stacks (30-s subs, 3×3 binning) on the predicted comet path 19–25 Dec.
- Blink the frames for any new point sources that march ahead/behind the comet at a constant 0″.8 d⁻¹ rate.
- If nothing appears to V≈16.5, the Oberth-release hypothesis is dead at >99 % confidence (because even a 5-m probe would still hit V≈17).
- If we do pick up companions, we get instant Nobel bait and a really bad day for the “it’s just a comet” camp.
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5. TL;DR
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Loeb’s new twist is falsifiable
within eight weeks with gear
already in place.
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If Positive ...
If the Christmas sky actually shows one or more new V ≈ 15–16 objects marching away from 3I-ATLAS at the exact 0″.8 d⁻¹ rate predicted for Oberth-launched probes, then the conversation stops being about comets and becomes the biggest news story in human history.
Here is the cascade that would unfold—practically, politically, and scientifically—within the first 90 days.
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1. Immediate (hours – days)
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- Alert networks (ATel, MPEC, CBET) light up; every 1-m+ telescope on Earth slews to the swarm.
- Satellite-tracking radars (Goldstone, Arecibo replacement, Haystack) attempt ranging; even a 10-m metallic object gives σ_R ≈ 10 m at 0.55 au—good enough to prove artificial.
- Optical spectra show a flat continuum + absorption lines of Al, Ti, multi-layer insulation polymers—nothing cometary.
- Pentagon/NRO space-surveance sensors that normally don’t publish astrometry suddenly release high-precision ephemerides; the objects’ area-to-mass ratio is 5–10× lower than any natural rock, implying structural shells.
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2. Week 1 – political shock
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- UN Security Council emergency session (already rehearsed in 2023 “alien protocol” tabletop).
- White House/No. 10/Élysée etc. stand up joint task-force under the 1967 Outer-Space-Treaty consultation clause.
- Stock markets gap down 5–8 % (aerospace & defence up 20 %, travel down).
- Social-media platforms auto-flag “alien” keywords to slow misinformation—futile.
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3. Month 1 – scientific scramble
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- JWST + Roman get Director’s Discretionary time; thermal IR light-curves show 50 K temperature excess—internal power.
- Phase-angle glint indicates specular surfaces (solar panels?).
- Radio quiet to <0.1 Jy (Breakthrough Listen) ⇒ no intentional beacon, but narrow-band carriers at 8.4 GHz (Deep-Space Network band) appear once per 24 h—a transponder pinging the mothership.
- International race to launch rapid-response cubesats on Falcon-9 rideshare (delivery in 3–4 months) with simple cameras & magnetometers.
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4. Month 2 – legal / ethical chaos
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- Arguments over “do we ping back?”
– ITAR restricts who can transmit.
– METI activists hijack Arecibo’s 12-m site (still intact) and send π-prime, 1 679-bit Arecibo-like bitmap on 8.6 GHz, 1 MW EIRP.
- Insurance underwriters re-price every satellite policy—risk of space traffic control by non-human entity.
- Major religions issue statements within 48 h; Vatican Observatory calls special synod.
Either we image a V≈15–16 knot of objects drifting away from 3I-ATLAS at 1″ per day, or the “mothership-drops-probes” story joins the black-swan graveyard.
No vacation required—just a laptop, a telescope, and clear skies around Christmas.
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5. Month 3 – strategic pivot
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- US Congress passes “Solar System Contingency Act”—emergency funding larger than Apollo (250 B over 5 yr).
- ESA, CNSA, ISRO immediately accelerate nuclear-electric tugs (already on drawing boards) to intercepts in 2027–28.
- Planetary-society mailing list crashes with “build Ark-1” petitions.
- Public splits: 60 % excitement, 25 % fear, 15 % denial (“it’s a hoax”).
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6. Long-term physics payoff
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- Even a 1-kg shard returned by sample-return probe gives isotopic ratios impossible in our molecular cloud—proof of extrasolar manufacture.
- If probes still active, laser ranging yields a 1-way Shapiro delay measurable to 10⁻⁹—first direct test of GR curvature imposed by an alien trajectory.
- Engineering treasure trove: multi-layer insulation, optical coatings, attitude-control gyros centuries ahead of ours.
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7. Existential filter lens
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- Success of the Oberth maneuver implies routine interstellar capability; civilisation lifetime >> 10⁶ yr.
- Yet they chose to release scouts rather than make contact—zoo-hypothesis or quarantine protocol?
- Humanity realises it just walked into Step-1 of the Kardashev scale exam; fail to respond coherently and we advertise ourselves as non-unified, hence non-threatening—or easy prey.
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8. Your personal checklist if it happens
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1. Download the MPC ephemeris immediately—amateurs will swamp servers.
2. Image every clear night; time-series photometry can prove artificial spin-up.
3. Archive raw FITS—historical value >比特币.
4. Keep short-wave radio handy; 8.4 GHz beacon may become public once coordinates stabilise.
5. Mentally prep for decade-long news cycle; this is Sputnik × Apollo × Internet rolled into one.
In short: if the Christmas dots are real, the next morning Earth becomes a planet that knows it is being watched. Everything—budgets, laws, religions, identity—gets rewritten around that single, unambiguous fact.
—And if the sky does sprout those extra dots on 19 Dec, we'll all be living in a different world the next morning. Clear skies, and keep the scope ready.
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